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John Kopke

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Re: We're All But Done
« Reply #6735 on: July 11, 2019, 10:06:09 PM »

Should have never been adjudicated in the first place.  That question has been on previous census forms.

This country is getting more screwed up by the day it seems like.

Citizenship question was on census form in 2000, and Obama took it off in 2010. So why is it a constitutional crisis when Trump wants to include it in 2020? It isn't a constitutional issue the Dems just don't want it from a political standpoint. 
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John Kopke

John Kopke

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Re: We're All But Done
« Reply #6736 on: July 11, 2019, 10:19:35 PM »

Iran is experiencing 50% inflation generally, and 85% of for basic food stuffs. Think about this. A loaf of bread that costs $ 3.00 a years ago now costs around $ 5.50, and rising.

How much longer can Iran resist before the people step up? Can they go another year where that loaf of bread costs close to $ 10.00? Not to mention another 50% increase for everything else?
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John Kopke

SidecarFlip

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Re: We're All But Done
« Reply #6737 on: July 11, 2019, 11:12:15 PM »

Iran is experiencing 50% inflation generally, and 85% of for basic food stuffs. Think about this. A loaf of bread that costs $ 3.00 a years ago now costs around $ 5.50, and rising.

How much longer can Iran resist before the people step up? Can they go another year where that loaf of bread costs close to $ 10.00? Not to mention another 50% increase for everything else?

Of course they can, it's a dictatorship.  The supreme leader will tell them what to do and they will do it or die.
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blue2

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Re: We're All But Done
« Reply #6738 on: July 12, 2019, 09:33:23 AM »

Just like Venezuela.  You protest you get shot.  Another country like Iran with vast oil resources and they only harvest enough to keep the dictator in funds
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Monroe Native

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Re: We're All But Done
« Reply #6739 on: July 12, 2019, 10:42:42 AM »

Of course they can, it's a dictatorship.  The supreme leader will tell them what to do and they will do it or die.

I'm guessing that you probably need to be on an "approved" list to have a fire arm there too.

Our founders were awfully smart when you think about it.

It's too bad that Progressives are so stupid and want to take it all away.
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I have learned that only two things are necessary to keep one's wife happy. First, let her think she's having her own way. And second, let her have it.
Lyndon B. Johnson

You do not examine legislation in the light of the benefits it will convey if properly administered, but in the light of the wrongs it would do and the harms it would cause if improperly administered.
Lyndon B. Johnson

blue2

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Re: We're All But Done
« Reply #6740 on: July 12, 2019, 10:57:10 AM »

It's hard for me to understand how progressives think the way they do.  Maybe we should send them all to Iran and Venezuela for a year or two..  Or better yet the Dominican Republic.
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Monroe Native

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Re: We're All But Done
« Reply #6741 on: July 12, 2019, 11:02:24 AM »

It's hard for me to understand how progressives think the way they do.  Maybe we should send them all to Iran and Venezuela for a year or two..  Or better yet the Dominican Republic.

I have no doubt they would come back with even more bad ideas to implement.
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I have learned that only two things are necessary to keep one's wife happy. First, let her think she's having her own way. And second, let her have it.
Lyndon B. Johnson

You do not examine legislation in the light of the benefits it will convey if properly administered, but in the light of the wrongs it would do and the harms it would cause if improperly administered.
Lyndon B. Johnson

blue2

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Re: We're All But Done
« Reply #6742 on: July 13, 2019, 10:17:40 AM »

I'm not suggesting we send them there with their current support system.  No more funds from mom and dad or Geo Soros..
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SidecarFlip

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Re: We're All But Done
« Reply #6743 on: July 13, 2019, 04:27:52 PM »

I see the acting director of the DHS is maybe suffering from loose lips.  If they are, he needs prosecuted.
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John Kopke

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Re: We're All But Done
« Reply #6744 on: July 13, 2019, 10:05:05 PM »

Iran is experiencing 50% inflation generally, and 85% of for basic food stuffs. Think about this. A loaf of bread that costs $ 3.00 a years ago now costs around $ 5.50, and rising.

How much longer can Iran resist before the people step up? Can they go another year where that loaf of bread costs close to $ 10.00? Not to mention another 50% increase for everything else?

Unlike some of my friends on the forum, I think the folks in Iran can overthrow the regime when it get's bad enough. Everyday Iranians are educated, and they aren't stupid. They understand their dire circumstances are due to living in a pariah state. The Mullah's agenda doesn't include what's best for the folks, it's death to Israel, and death to America. Many of the Iranian people understand it makes sense that neither Israel, or America, would take kindly to their leaders making such threats against them.

Iran's leadership is running out of time. The sanctions are brutal. If general inflation is 50%
now, it means the regime has no choice but to print money, because they ain't bringing any
real money in. And it only gets worse as time goes by.

So what's Trump's bottom line? Squeeze long enough to cause a revolution to overthrow the regime, or corner the regime to (maybe) surrender their nuclear ambitions. I'm betting on the latter. 

« Last Edit: July 13, 2019, 10:09:42 PM by John Kopke »
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John Kopke

Peter Pumpkin

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Re: We're All But Done
« Reply #6745 on: July 14, 2019, 03:28:13 AM »

Unlike some of my friends on the forum, I think the folks in Iran can overthrow the regime when it get's bad enough. Everyday Iranians are educated, and they aren't stupid. They understand their dire circumstances are due to living in a pariah state. The Mullah's agenda doesn't include what's best for the folks, it's death to Israel, and death to America. Many of the Iranian people understand it makes sense that neither Israel, or America, would take kindly to their leaders making such threats against them.

Iran's leadership is running out of time. The sanctions are brutal. If general inflation is 50%
now, it means the regime has no choice but to print money, because they ain't bringing any
real money in. And it only gets worse as time goes by.

So what's Trump's bottom line? Squeeze long enough to cause a revolution to overthrow the regime, or corner the regime to (maybe) surrender their nuclear ambitions. I'm betting on the latter.

 Hi Mr. Kopke! I've been following your posts as a guest and while I generally agree with the things you say, I have to tell you, I don't know about this one. Honestly, I think what you are venturing here would be plausible in theory, but like many theories, it is just that. Iranian society is very tightly controlled, and while Iranians may be able to disagree and grumble to a point, it would be quite another to initiate and carry out a sustained uprising, especially in a controlled society where individuals don't have access to firearms or other means to stave off gov't security forces. Regardless of all the other mitigating factors you mention, it comes down to how many Iranians would be willing to be sheep to the slaughter to bring about the changes you're suggesting. The IRGC controls Iran. Even the Mullahs don't cross them. The IRGC would put down any serious uprising in short order, unless outside forces were to back up said uprising. The US isn't in a financial position to do so, and the EU doesn't want to because they are too busy trying to figure out ways to make $$$ in Iran.

The EU, China, and Russia are all about circumventing sanctions to keep Iranian markets open to the global economy, for the time being. Iran doesn't need the US to lift sanctions if it can do business with the other three elephants in the room.
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blue2

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Re: We're All But Done
« Reply #6746 on: July 14, 2019, 11:12:40 AM »

I would hope the US would not get involed militarily in any kind of event that took place in Iran, or anywhere else in the Mid East for that matter.
And I think Trump will sever aid to all the EU if they continue to do business with Iran.
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SidecarFlip

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Re: We're All But Done
« Reply #6747 on: July 14, 2019, 12:30:44 PM »

I would hope the US would not get involed militarily in any kind of event that took place in Iran, or anywhere else in the Mid East for that matter.
And I think Trump will sever aid to all the EU if they continue to do business with Iran.

Why are we providing aid to anyone in the first place when we have people living in cardboard boxes right here in this country.  I'm all about isolationism.  This country can be entirely self supporting if it wants to be.

Close the borders (Canada and Mexico), get out of world politics and deal with the home issues.

The United States mantra of throwing money at stuff only gets us a bad rap in Europe anyway.
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John Kopke

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Re: We're All But Done
« Reply #6748 on: July 14, 2019, 09:25:37 PM »

Hi Mr. Kopke! I've been following your posts as a guest and while I generally agree with the things you say, I have to tell you, I don't know about this one. Honestly, I think what you are venturing here would be plausible in theory, but like many theories, it is just that. Iranian society is very tightly controlled, and while Iranians may be able to disagree and grumble to a point, it would be quite another to initiate and carry out a sustained uprising, especially in a controlled society where individuals don't have access to firearms or other means to stave off gov't security forces. Regardless of all the other mitigating factors you mention, it comes down to how many Iranians would be willing to be sheep to the slaughter to bring about the changes you're suggesting. The IRGC controls Iran. Even the Mullahs don't cross them. The IRGC would put down any serious uprising in short order, unless outside forces were to back up said uprising. The US isn't in a financial position to do so, and the EU doesn't want to because they are too busy trying to figure out ways to make $$$ in Iran.

The EU, China, and Russia are all about circumventing sanctions to keep Iranian markets open to the global economy, for the time being. Iran doesn't need the US to lift sanctions if it can do business with the other three elephants in the room.

PP:

Good stuff. You covered a lot of ground. You're right, you pointed out where my theory has some flaws. Republican Guard is devoted and ruthless. Could very well be a slaughter if
unarmed Iranian's rose up to seeking to overthrow the Mullahs. Yet if this inflation continues to spiral out of control, it will get really bad for the folks, and the regime won't have the money to pay for their various nefarious activities, or their nuclear program. I imagine no matter how bad things get financially the regime will pay the guard, but what about the regular military? 

You're right EU pols are resisting sanctions because they want to continue making money from trade with Iran. Problem is European companies doing business with Iran will find they
have to choose between continuing to do business with Iran, or to continue doing business
with the USA.  Their choice isn't hard.

As for Russia and China propping them up it won't make a deciding difference. I think I read Iran's oil exports are down like 90%. Right now the only way Iran can make money is to print it.

Just read where Iran is ready to negotiate if we will lift the sanctions.

PP:  I'm honored you chose to address me as you're first post, you did good. Look forward to discussing this issue further with you.

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John Kopke

Peter Pumpkin

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Re: We're All But Done
« Reply #6749 on: July 15, 2019, 10:06:02 AM »

PP:

Good stuff. You covered a lot of ground. You're right, you pointed out where my theory has some flaws. Republican Guard is devoted and ruthless. Could very well be a slaughter if
unarmed Iranian's rose up to seeking to overthrow the Mullahs. Yet if this inflation continues to spiral out of control, it will get really bad for the folks, and the regime won't have the money to pay for their various nefarious activities, or their nuclear program. I imagine no matter how bad things get financially the regime will pay the guard, but what about the regular military? 

You're right EU pols are resisting sanctions because they want to continue making money from trade with Iran. Problem is European companies doing business with Iran will find they
have to choose between continuing to do business with Iran, or to continue doing business
with the USA.  Their choice isn't hard.

As for Russia and China propping them up it won't make a deciding difference. I think I read Iran's oil exports are down like 90%. Right now the only way Iran can make money is to print it.

Just read where Iran is ready to negotiate if we will lift the sanctions.

PP:  I'm honored you chose to address me as you're first post, you did good. Look forward to discussing this issue further with you.

You're right in stating that the choice of trade partners for the EU isn't hard, but it's not going to be the U.S. For the moment they may choose to continue to circunnavigate Iranian sanctions and do business with the U.S. and Iran, but the sanctions (and tariffs) are forcing EU nations to seek out other avenues for trade. A much more financially lucrative opportunity has presented itself. They have options. We on the other hand, do not.

As for Iran, decades of sanctions on N. Korea didn't deter that isolated regime from seeking (and obtaining) nuclear weapons. We, on the other hand made threat after threat after threat; to what end, accepting them into the "nuclear brotherhood"? Iran has far more resources and contacts than N. Korea ever did, plus, they have one big trump card: The ability and will to interrupt and curtail shipping through the Straight of Hormuz, at will, with NO nation challenging them. The U.S has lost it's will to intercede in that and many other theaters. Look at this forum , or to the average 'man on the street' for evidence of that.
We've backed down and made the wrong choices in Mid East arena one too many times. Trump had the opportunity to exercise U.S. power and stand up to Iran on the Hormuz issue, but instead he chose to look to 2020 instead. Bad, Bad, Bad Choice. Many nations other than Iran were watching that scenario unfold, and true to form, the U.S. capitulated, without so much as a whimper.

Iran won control of the Straight without even having to train any of its guns on American forces.  Think about that for a moment. Are you so sure the U.S. has the upper hand ? Iran isn't America's only nemeses in the Mid East, or in that hemisphere. Many eyes took note as Trump backed down.

Persians, unlike Americans, consider the end game, as well as the one in current play. They detest a weak-willed opponent, especially one that is so weak-willed that it refuses to act, even when it's opponent is, as you rightly present, severely challenged, economically and otherwise.

Americans froth at the mouth over the game of football. In football, much like in warfare, opponents seek out the opposing teams' weaknesses and attempt to take advantage of and exploit them to the max for their respective advantages. If a favored team did not do so, it would loose the following of its fans, would it not? Thus I ask you Mr. Kopke, is it more preferable to act against a severely weaker opponent, when one has that advantage on one's side, or is it wiser to wait until that opponent has the time to rectify some of those weaknesses, thus presenting a more challenging posture? I can't recall a single game of football that was played to a negotiated outcome, can you Mr. Kopke? And what would the fans think of such an outcome Mr. Kopke, would it be acceptable, and be considered favorable?

Yet Americans are more than willing to negotiate with tyrants, dictators, and those who would prefer them dead. And while they are focused on those negotiations, those folks who would prefer them dead, they have more and more time to renew their strength. Again Mr. Kopke, are you absolutely sure America has the upper hand ?

America's current President (as well as those of the recent past) favor(s) $$$ and the 'art of the deal' over rightly and permanently dealing with America's enemies.

Curious, do you think Putin would have backed down? Would Xi Jin ? For that matter, would the Mullahs ?
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